Long Island Real Estate Market

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Long Island Real Estate Market: To Sell Now Or Hold On...For A Long Time

I have been writing articles about the Long Island real estate market for some time now and I came across the perfect information that illustrates what homeowners might expect during the next few years. I thought about the title to this article and decided to just lay it all out there.

What you're about to read is not just my opinion. I'm not as self-absorbed or diluted as our typical politicians who seem to know it all when things are good and point the finger when they're not. No, I don't, and will not, publish articles about what I think or feel. Rather, I publish articles about information.

1008-freddie-mac.jpg

You may click the image(s) to enlarge it. The information is forwarded-looking in nature and deals with what's down the road for real estate values. I find myself talking with many homeowners who ask me "my opinion" about what's in store for the Long Island real estate market. As I explain to them the ramifications for "holding on" and not selling now, or asking a 2005 price for their home in 2008, I get alot of, "Well, you don't know what's going to happen in the future..." or "I think it's going to come back next spring..."

Well Freddie Mac doesn't think so according to Bloomberg News who quoted officials citing the S&P Case/Schiller Home Price Index. (I'm scratching my head)...So I guess the average homeowner who is a teacher or a plumber or a doctor knows more about the real estate market than Freddie Mac or Bloomberg News or Case and Schiller. See the next slide.

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I took this quote directly from the previous slide: Radar Logic publishes price-per-square-foot data used as the basis for the Residential Property Index, or RPX market, used by most hedge funds and institutional investors to hedge their mortgage-related bets. The 2011 estimate is not the company's own, but is based on a forward curve produced from futures trading in the RPX market.

 CLICK HERE TO READ THE REST OF THE ARTICLE

4 commentsThomas McGiveron • October 09 2008 11:29PM

The Secret

The Secret - Incredible movie and book.  If you want to change it up and wake up everyday ready to tear into the day, then just buy it.  Don't hesitate.  Don't hem n haw.  Take action!

The Secret

The power of positive thinking...

4 commentsThomas McGiveron • October 05 2008 07:56AM

Recent Economic Events Affecting The Mortgage Industry

Recent Economic Events Affecting The Mortgage Industry

New - September 23, 2008

The Fed announced plans to create a market place for illiquid mortgage debt. This should do a lot of long-term good to help the housing and lending environment. As if that weren't enough, the Securities and Exchange Commission also placed a temporary ban on the short selling of 799 different financially related stocks.

What prompted these dramatic actions? Very dramatic happenings earlier in the week.

After 158 years in existence, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy last Monday due to overexposure of high risk loans in the mortgage arena. Then, the Fed gave insurance giant AIG an $85 Billion lifeline to keep it from going into bankruptcy, after initially stating it would not intervene. Then it was announced that Merrill Lynch is being acquired by Bank of America, which will save them from the same fate as Lehman Brothers, and now troubled bank Washington Mutual is looking for a buyer as well.

Also playing a role was the fact that the Fed left its benchmark Feds Funds Rate (the rate banks charge each other for overnight lending) unchanged on Tuesday, not wanting to counter the recent improvements the US economy has made in the way of inflation. While this benefited Bonds and home loan rates earlier in the week, Stocks felt heavy selling pressure on the news... which added to the reasons for the actions taken late last week.

The government's announcements on Friday are great news for the overall health of our financial system, though they did cause Bonds and home loan rates to move away from their best levels of the week. All in all, Bonds and home loan ended the week slightly worse than where they began. Additionally, stocks had their most volatile week in history- but ended the week almost exactly where they started.

by Tony Auffant
Senior Mortgage Planner
Continental Home Loans

www.tommcgiveron.com

0 commentsThomas McGiveron • September 25 2008 07:38AM

Long Island Real Estate Market: Moving Forward

In my previous article, Long Island Real Estate Market: It's Starting To Look Ugly, I struggled with that title for the simple reason, it just sounds aweful. So I wanted to make the next article a bit more positive in tone.

The content of the previous article is filled with facts about declining prices. I wrote it not to discourage homeowners, but to warn them of what lies ahead. While we have a long way to go before prices settle and the Long Island real estate market begins an upward tend, there are many national statistics indicating an end to the market decline.

  • "Sales of new homes rose by 2.4% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 515,000 units the Commerce Department said Tuesday." Source: Commerce Department 8/25/08 - Courtesy of Steve Harney, Keeping Current Matters
  • "Existing sales were up 3.1% in July. The sales rate was the highest since February. Sales averaged a pace of 4.95 million the past three months, the same rate as the previous period, indicating that purchases may have touched a bottom." Source: Bloomberg 8/25/08 - Courtesy of Steve Harney, Keeping Current Matters
  • "In a sign that the U.S. housing market may strengthen in coming months, an index of sales contracts on previously owned U.S. homes rose 5.3% in June from the prior month." Source: MarketWatch 8/07/08 - Courtesy of Steve Harney, Keeping Current Matters

Now these statistics are positive. However (I'm beginning not to like this word very much), these improvements in the marketplace are lagging behind the negative impacts on our financial markets and housing supply vs. demand ratios.

My hesitancy to jump for joy in my articles is simply because I do not want to give the wrong impression to homeowners wanting to sell. It's imperative that homes are priced aggressively. One of the mistakes people make in listening to the news is they hear terms like, "improvements in sales" and translate that to, "improvements in sale prices". And that is not the case. We may have sold more homes throughout the Long Island real estate market within the last month or so, but that does not mean, prices improved. It means several other things like, prices dropped to a point where buyers paid the respective price(s), mortgage rates dropped, gasoline prices dropped, and real estate agents marketed their properties harder than ever before.

This paragraph above is key for homeowners to understand. So please, read it again so that you build an understanding of the business of real estate and how the market works.

In closing, I'd like to leave you with some positive quotes from some pretty respectable names in the news. Hopefully they will help us in our attempts to continue moving forward.

  • "I am now telling you that between now and the next six months you have to buy a house." Source: Mad Money Blog 7/23/2008 - Courtesy of Steve Harney, Keeping Current Matters
  • "We're hopefully getting in the vicinity of a bottom," says David Resler, chief U.S. economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. Courtesy of Steve Harney, Keeping Current Matters

      (c) Copyright, 2008 www.tommcgiveron.com

      By Thomas McGiveron, Licensed Real Estate Salesperson, New York State

0 commentsThomas McGiveron • September 21 2008 08:34AM

Investing In Tax Liens

Great resources for investing in tax liens.

The Complete Guide To Investing In Real Estate Tax Liens and Deeds

Many real estate agents I speak to don't quite understand the "how to's" of tax liens purchasing and investing.

This is a great resource of investing in tax liens.

 

 

 

1 commentThomas McGiveron • September 19 2008 10:39PM

Success In Life: To Make Fire

 I wrote this article a long time ago.  I was browsing through one of my blog sites and found it.  It's pretty good.  I hope you get something out of it.

Tuesday, April 17th, 2007

In the movie, "The Edge", two men are being tracked down by a man-eating bear.  As these two desperate men struggle to survive when all odds are against them including lack of shelter, food and harsh environments, they are pushed to the edge and must rely on their grit and guts to pull them through.  In one defining scene, both men realize they must kill the bear in order to survive as it continues to hunt them relentlessly.  At this moment in the movie, both men shout out loud, in the middle of a gigantic forest, "I'm going to kill the bear." 

I've probably watched this scene a dozen times or so.  It was only recently, that I actually turned on the television and by chance this movie was on.  The scene means more to me now than ever before.  It dawned on me that there was much more to this scene than just about the plot of this movie.  The figurative meanings I have since attached to this saying give me a different focus I did not have before.

In the movie, "Cast Away", Tom Hanks is stranded on an island alone.  He is without all the amenities we take for granted.  In the movie, something as simple as a lighter or running water are unavailable.  Food and shelter become the man's struggle to achieve. 

Now if you were stranded somewhere and had no matches or synthetic way of starting a fire, and you actually made the fire from wood you had to split without the use of a knife, how do you think you'd feel?  In one of the great scenes in this movie, the man stranded on the island, manages to make fire and shouts loudly, over and over, "I have made fire!"

Now what does this have to do with success in life?  Everything. 

Success is measured by how much you fight.  Success is measured by how you handle challenges and adversity.  When you're looking around at your surroundings and questioning everything you've failed to do, say, "I'm going to kill the bear!"  If something needs to be done and you don't have the resources to get it done, will you make the fire!

People do amazing things every day.  Aspen mountaineer Aron Ralston used his pocket knife to cut off his own arm in order to free himself from a 1000 pound boulder that left him without water or food, trapped facing certain death.  With the help of 12 disciples (and God), Jesus Christ, whether you believe he is the son of God or not, changed the world.

So why not you?  Another line from the movie, The Edge, is "What one man can do, another can do!"  The term "man" here is relative to both genders.  When you're thinking of squirming away from what you know you can do, repeat these sayings, over and over again.  Do not let your mind, think its way out of "danger". 

Often people will shy away from doing something they've never done before, because their mind gives them a dose of "reality".  Meanwhile, that "reality" is fear masked as logic.  

Next time you're in this spot, think of the person who makes fire with their bare hands.  Can you think the fire to start?  Think of the bear that hunts you down and see yourself in the forest, with only the clothes on your back and the trees around you.  Can you think the bear away? 

The answer is no.

It's your move.

©2007 noobdogs.com

5 commentsThomas McGiveron • September 14 2008 12:10AM

Life: Tony Robbin's Style

So I left the counseling field to build a real estate agent business.  I'm not looking back and I'm loving it.

One of the things I miss sometimes though, is helping people on a strictly emotional level.  While real estate is definitely emotional and the people we work with run the gamet, it's still nice to try and stay connected in a different way.

One of the things about being a real estate agent that is so important is - staying driven.  Daily items that you can do go a long way - LONG WAY toward making it happen - e v e r y d a y!

I figured I'd share this book by Tony Robbins!  Enjoy.  He has a way of putting it straight.  I used to think (when my mind was controlled by complete negativity), that "people like him" were freaks.  I realized, I was the freak.  Anyhow, for 10 bucks, you can't beat it.

Unlimited Power: The New Science of Personal Achievement

If you read it already - please give me your thoughts! 

11 commentsThomas McGiveron • September 14 2008 12:01AM

Deer Park Real Estate: Market Update August, 2008

I'm going to compare June 2008 data with July 2008 data. I never liked math in school and I especially disliked statistics. However, like Mr. Alberding said in my 11th grade Math II Regents class (which I repeated from 10th grade due to complete and utter failure), "These statistics are useful."

According to the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island as of July 8, 2008:

1. 215 = The amount of homes available for sale in Deer Park (11729)

2. 14 = The amount of Closings for the month of June, 2008 in Deer Park.

3. 15.3 = The amount of months of inventory there is in Deer Park

According to the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island as of August 15, 2008:

1. 219 = The amount of homes available for sale in Deer Park (11729)

2. 12= The amount of Closings for the month of June, 2008 in Deer Park.

3. 18.25 = The amount of months of inventory there is in Deer Park

So in this basic analysis, we see an increase in the number of homes available. The market took on 4 more new listings while selling 2 less homes in the month of July. That means we're taking on more inventory and selling less (this is not good). The average sale price in Deer Park for the month of July was $378,992 compared to $367,928 for June. Aha! The market is coming around! Prices are going up! No it just means that the group of homes sold in July had a few homes in Deer Park that sold for over $500,000, thus boosting the average sale price higher.

I added the average sale price in there to prove Mr. Alberding's point. Statistics are more than just averages. In my analysis, I take (3) factors that provid an overall sense of where the market is. Months of inventory allows us to measure against the amount of homes for sale and the actual number of sales in a given month. This gives us our outlook for inventory.

The number one market factor impacting the value of homes on Long Island is the available homes for sale. There's just so much to choose from and there's simply not enough buyers to purchase every home.

If you want to sell your home, pricing it right is an absolute must.

Need to know the value of your home? Click Here. I'll be in touch within an hour.

(c) Copyright 2008, www.tommcgiveron.com

0 commentsThomas McGiveron • September 13 2008 04:42PM

Buying A Home: First Time Home Buyer Tips

I think we can all agree, buying a home is a major life-changing decision.  When it comes to making one of the most important financial decisions of your life, it pays to read a little and get some first time home buyer tips.  Some will say, "Too much information can be dangerous."  And while I may agree with that to an extent, as long as you understand there are experts out there who can really help and reading up on the subject is only done to help you understand a bit more, then by all means, read a little.

If you're going to read books or magazines to try and develop your own "expertise"...please stop reading this post and do not buy any books.

So if you're decided to continue reading on, congratulations.  What you will find here are links to some excellent resources that will go a long way toward helping you understand the basics of buying your first home.

I searched long and hard for these books and chose them because they're easy to read and packed with useful information.

10 Steps to Home Ownership: A Workbook for First-Time Buyers (Paperback)

From what to expect in fees for mortgages to your very first inspection and what to look for in a qualified real estate attorney, this book covers it all.  Written by Ilyce R. Glink.  Click here for a snapshot of what to expect in this book.

Eyes Wide Open:: A Mortgage Guide For First Time Home Buyers (Paperback)

The mortgage process can be the most difficult to understand.  There are excellent resources even on this site, but some can be over-the-top with too much information.  Eyes Wide Open doesn't bog you down with too much information.  Click here for reader reviews about this book.

Tips and Traps When Buying a Home (Paperback)

Written by "America's number 1 real estate expert", Robert Irwin, this book talks straight.  Highly recommended. Click here for a snapshot of what to expect in this book.

For a pinpoint way to search for more material about real estate topics such as this and get the best prices as well, visit tomsresource.com.  I made this site because searching for good quality material about real estate isn't that easy.  This site cuts through a lot and also offers a great custom search via google, if you cannot find what you're looking for. 

0 commentsThomas McGiveron • September 12 2008 09:22AM

Real Estate Listing Presentation: Stats To Consider

Most Multiple Listing Services offer Activity Reports of some kind that break down data on a month by month basis, from year to year.  I have found that closing my listing presentations with this information helps to give a potential selling client the "big picture". 

As an example, in my last 6 listing appointments, I have added Activity Report comparisons with the most recent month in 2008 vs. the same month in the previous year (2007).  In every one of these appointments, I "got the listing". 

Note: For me on Long Island, that's a total of $2,560,000 (approximate) in inventory, which translates to more buyer traffic, increased agent networking (as they call to show my inventory) and approximately $60,000 (minimum) in revenue.  That $60,000 does not include all the possible buyer leads I accumulate, plus the additional listings I will obtain in the area via sign calls.

Back to the Activity Reports and their effectiveness during the listing presentation.  As a whole, I feel if I focus too much on the specifics of the area, the homeowner gets lost or worse, caught up in how their neighbor is priced.  I want to avoid this because if their neighbor is priced too high, then this puts me in the defensive position of trying to explain why I must price the home lower than their neighbor. 

I end my listing presentations with strong data in the Activity Reports.  In my local market, comparing July, 2007 Total Closing Gross Volume To Date (January to July, 2007 = $2,487,794,200) vs. July, 2008 (January to July, 2008 = $1,753,808,300), I point out to my homeowner a decline of total gross volume in sales over $730,000,000.  That's a "big picture item" that let's them know, without a doubt, the market has slowed.  Additionally, I compare the declines in listing prices, contract prices and closed sales in the respective months.

Another item I focus on is total inventory.  One thing I've noticed is people confuse a what they hear on television.  They will hear something like, "...increase in sales..." and interpret that as "...increase in sales prices...".  What information they may be hearing is based on sales vs. inventory.  Say that in July 07 there were 3,415 total active listings with 168 closings in a given zone or area of the state and in July 08, there were 3,151 total active listings with 156 closings in the same zone, etc. 

Taking that at a national level (or local), one could interpret that as higher sales volume - aka "increase in sales..."  When really, the good thing to point out is that the market is taking on less listings (which is good for sellers) and that sales ratios are increasing (and I'm one of the agents involved in making that happen!).  However, both of these positive indicators are severely lagging behind the negative data.  I use the decline in sales price data from each respective month to prove this point - prices must come down in order to move the inventory.

The Activity Report, shows my homeowners, that I am in total command of the information as a whole, not just in their local little neighborhood.  I can also use this data to deflect away from squabbling about a neighbors house.  The market is much larger than the neighbors house, but I don't have to convince them of that.  I simply introduce this overall "big picture" and they forget about the neighbor.

Most importantly, as I hit a few highlighted items (yes I use a highlighter to point out items of interest), I find that my listings are priced good, which means, they get showings and when I show it, I generally convert buyer loyalty at a higher frequency because they see me as someone who knows real estate (which I do).

So, if your local MLS has an Activity Report, then you should definitely take advantage of it in your presentations.  If they do not have one, then you would be wise to write the local board, talk to your broker and get the word out.  You pay membership fees for a reason. 

The Activity Reports on my local MLS helps me to focus homeowners on big picture items and it really does help me know the market place that much better. 

Good luck!

13 commentsThomas McGiveron • September 10 2008 12:08AM